The Long Nose Of Innovation

Bill Buxton at Microsoft Research has some thoughts about innovation that he shares in Business Week. He emphasise the fact that most technologies that is going to be important within 10 years has already existed for at least 10 years. Buxton calls this theory “The Long Nose of Innovation”.

For example; the mouse. Built in 1965. Copied and developed, but not put it to the general publics interest until 1984 and the release of Apple’s Macintosh. But it wasn’t until the release of Windows 95 that the mouse became ubiquitous.
This illustrate of how it generally takes up to 30 years for new technology to reach out to its mass-audience. And this is the "fast-paced world of computers," where it is "almost impossible" to keep up.

He calls his The Long Nose of Innovation a reflection of Chris Andersons Best seller The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More.
“My belief is there is a mirror-image of the long tail that is equally important to those wanting to understand the process of innovation. It states that the bulk of innovation behind the latest "wow" moment (multi-touch on the iPhone, for example) is also low-amplitude and takes place over a long period—but well before the ‘new’ idea has become generally known, much less reached the tipping point. It is what I call The Long Nose of Innovation.”

So, his point is; instead of constantly creating new technologies maybe we should focus on refining existing ones. Read the article in Business Week